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Harga minyak negatif, macam mana tu? Harga minyak mentah West Texas Intermediate (WTI) di Amerika jatuh bawah SIFAR semalam! Bayangkan harga minyak petrol negatif tiga ringgit seliter. Macam mana ek cara bayar ni? Isi minyak 10 liter dapat cash RM 30 ke? Minyak terlalu murah hingga tokey minyak pun tak nak simpan, siapa ambil siap bagi duit lagi. Tapi tank minyak kereta di musim Covid-19, masih tak luak. Yang dua minggu lepas pun tak turun setakuk pun lagi. Bayangkan.. just imagine that😄. Tapi sebenarnya ia tak akan berlaku di stesen minyak. Harga negatif ini berlaku di pasaran hadapan minyak mentah yang didagangkan di US. Kontrak hadapan ialah beli atau jual minyak tiga bulan akan datang. Ini kita panggil minyak kertas. Harga minyak ni yang kita duk follow di berita. Yang turun negatif tu, kontrak untuk delivery bulan May, yang akan expired 21hb April. Maknanya, sesiapa yang masih hold kontrak hingga expiry terpaksa menerima atau deliver minyak physical. Kalau kita lihat kontrak hadapan untuk June delivery, harganya sekitar USD 20. Dalam pasaran hadapan (macam forex), ada dua pemain utama. Pertama pemain komersial seperti syarikat minyak. Kedua speculator. Speculator hanya berminat untuk buat trade atas kertas sahaja, tanpa berminat untuk menerima atau menjual minyak physical. Jadi biasanya mereka akan roll over kontrak yang nak expired dengan kontrak bulan seterusnya. Apabila harga minyak tidak ada tanda nak naik, semua speculator akan bersesak nak masuk gua. Mereka semua nak jual sebelum expired. Tambahan pula, when hours to expiry nearer and nearer, mereka semua makin terdesak. Sama ada, cari buyer atau terpaksa terima minyak physical. Spekulator nak buat apa dengan minyak mentah tu. Bukan ada refinery boleh proses. Perut mereka senak. Setelah speculator sama speculator bermandi darah antara mereka and rush to exit door, ada pemain komersial yang memang hold dan ready untuk terima minyak mentah sebagai settlement. A contract must have both a buyer and a seller.

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Topics: covid 19, ekonomi, ekonomi malaysia, gdp, harga minyak, inflasi, krisis ekonomi, krisis makanan, personal finance, petronas, saham

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